domingo, 20 de mayo de 2012

The Future of Self-Improvement, Part I: Grit Is More Important Than Talent

In the late '60s, Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel performed a now-iconic experiment called the Marshmallow Test, which analyzed the ability of four year olds to exhibit "delayed gratification." Here's what happened: Each child was brought into the room and sat down at a table with a delicious treat on it (maybe a marshmallow, maybe a donut). The scientists told the children that they could have a treat now, or, if they waited 15 minutes, they could have two treats. 
 
by Jocelyn K. Glei
 
All of the children wanted to wait. (Who doesn't want more treats?) But many couldn't. After just a few minutes or less, their resolve would break down and they would eat the marshmallow. But some kids were better at delaying gratification: They were able to hold out for the full 15 minutes.

When the researchers subsequently checked in on these same children in high school, it turned out that those with more self-control -- that is, those who held out for 15 minutes -- were better behaved, less prone to addiction, and scored higher on the SAT.

Recounting Mischel's research in an excellent New Yorker article (that this piece could not exist without), Jonah Lehrer writes that, after observing hundreds of hours of videotape of the children, Mischel concluded that the kids who resisted temptation used "strategic allocation of attention":
Instead of getting obsessed with the marshmallow -- the "hot stimulus" -- the patient children distracted themselves by covering their eyes, pretending to play hide-and-seek underneath the desk, or singing songs from "Sesame Street." Their desire wasn't defeated -- it was merely forgotten. "If you're thinking about the marshmallow and how delicious it is, then you're going to eat it," Mischel says. "The key is to avoid thinking about it in the first place."
 
It's not difficult to see how self-control would be predictive of success in certain spheres. It means trading short-term gratification for long-term goals, skipping the temptation to go to the movies and working on your novel instead. But that's a relatively simple example -- one that makes the decision to exercise self-control, or not, easy to see.

In reality, we are faced with hundreds of these "tradeoff decisions" within the span of a single day. As the thoughtful blogger James Shelley has written, very often when we talk about the skill of "productivity" what we are really talking about is "self-control" -- the disciplined ability to choose to do one thing at the cost of not doing another (perhaps more tempting thing).
 
Very often when we talk about the skill of ‘productivity’ what we are really talking about is ‘self-control.’
 
 
As the hierarchy of the traditional workplace breaks down, we are all gaining more freedom and flexibility. More and more, we can set our own long-term goals, we can determine our own work schedules, we can work at an office or at a coffee shop, we can make our own decisions about what we focus on today, and what we focus on tomorrow. But this "freedom" also brings responsibility -- a responsibility that, I would argue, demands a vastly increased capacity for self-control.

In essence, Twitter is the new marshmallow. (Or Facebook, or Foursquare. Pick your poison.) At any given moment, a host of such "treats" await us. Emails, social media messages, text messages -- discrete little bits of unexpected and novel information that activate our brain's seeking circuitry, titillating it and inciting the desire to search for more. Our ability to resist such temptations, and focus on the hard work of creative labor, is part and parcel of pushing great ideas forward.

And yet: Self-control isn't the whole story.

Intrigued by what qualities would most accurately predict outstanding achievement, Harvard researcher Angela Duckworth picked up where Walter Mischel left off. As she outlines in this TEDx talk, Duckworth found that self-control is an excellent predictor of your ability to follow through on certain types of difficult tasks -- staying on your diet, studying for a test, not checking your email -- but it's not the most important factor when it comes to predicting success at "extremely high-challenge achievement."

Duckworth was also suspicious of qualities like talent and intelligence as reliable predictors for remarkable achievement. And with good reason: Way back in 1926, a psychologist named Catherine Morris Cox published a study of 300 recognized geniuses, from Leonardo Da Vinci to Gottfried Leibniz to Mozart to Charles Darwin to Albert Einstein. Cox, who had worked with Lewis M. Terman to develop the Stanford-Binet IQ test, was curious what factors lead to "realized genius," those people who would really make their mark on the world. After reading about the lives of hundreds historic geniuses, Cox identified a host of qualities, beyond raw intelligence, that predicted "greatness."

Studying Cox's findings, Duckworth isolated two qualities that she thought might be a better predictor of outstanding achievement:
 
1. The tendency not to abandon tasks from mere changeability. Not seeking something because of novelty. Not "looking for a change."

2. The tendency not to abandon tasks in the face of obstacles. Perseverance, tenacity, doggedness.

Duckworth boiled these two characteristics down to a quality she called "grit," defined as "the perseverance and passion for a long-term goal," and set about testing it as a predictor for outstanding achievement. Here's a recent New York Times article summarizing Duckworth's research:

People who accomplished great things, [Duckworth] noticed, often combined a passion for a single mission with an unswerving dedication to achieve that mission, whatever the obstacles and however long it might take.
...

She developed a test to measure grit, which she called the Grit Scale. It is a deceptively simple test, in that it requires you to rate yourself on just 12 questions, from "I finish whatever I begin" to "I often set a goal but later choose to pursue a different one." It takes about three minutes to complete, and it relies entirely on self-report -- and yet when Duckworth took it out into the field, she found it was remarkably predictive of success. At Penn, high grit ratings allowed students with relatively low college-board scores to nonetheless achieve high G.P.A.'s. Duckworth and her collaborators gave their grit test to more than 1,200 freshman cadets as they entered West Point and embarked on the grueling summer training course known as Beast Barracks. The military has developed its own complex evaluation, called the Whole Candidate Score, to judge incoming cadets and predict which of them will survive the demands of West Point; it includes academic grades, a gauge of physical fitness and a Leadership Potential Score. But at the end of Beast Barracks, the more accurate predictor of which cadets persisted and which ones dropped out turned out to be Duckworth's 12-item grit questionnaire.


Duckworth carried out a similar "success study" with kids who competed in spelling bees. Again, it turned out that grit -- in this case, the ability to persist and passionately pursue your goal of winning the spelling bee whatever it takes -- was the best predictor of success. Verbal IQ scores were a factor, but they were inversely related to the grit scores. In essence, the smarter kids just didn't try as hard, but still did pretty well sometimes. Self-control was also an influential factor, but not as reliable a predictor of success as grit, and not a completely necessary factor. That is, there was a subset of kids who had poor self-control but a lot of grit, who still performed very well.

If it was ever in question, we can now rest assured that dogged hard work is the cornerstone of remarkable achievement. That said, Duckworth's findings still raise some nagging questions: Is grit an inborn ability, just like intelligence or talent? Or, can grit be cultivated?

Source: Jocelyn K. Glei is the Editor-in-Chief of 99%. You can follow her @jkglei.

sábado, 19 de mayo de 2012

La exageración del cambio climático

El IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático) publicó en 1990 su primer informe. En una de las páginas del resumen inicial se vaticinaba que la temperatura en el año 2025 habría subido probablemente 1ºC con respecto a la de 1990. 
                                        
Han pasado ya 22 años desde que se hiciera aquella predicción, que todavía siguen sosteniendo. Quedan 13 años para el 2025. ¿Cómo va la predicción ?
                                           
En la figura se muestra con la línea quebrada en azul la evolución de las temperaturas mensuales globales desde Enero de 1990 hasta Marzo del 2012 y con la línea recta roja se muestra la subida pronosticada como más probable por el IPCC (unos 0,3ºC por década, 1ºC de subida en el año 2025).
 
 
Es obvio que la predicción no se está cumpliendo. 
Realmente existen aún muchas incertidumbres en las predicciones, especialmente respecto al papel del vapor de agua y de las nubes y también en lo que concierne a la variabilidad interna y natural del sistema climático, tanto por cambios en la actividad solar, que pueden afectar a la radiación cósmica y a la formación de nubes,  como por variaciones en las corrientes profundas de los océanos. 
 
Como ha reconocido el reconocido científico James Lovelock, las predicciones pasadas fueron muy alarmistas y no se están cumpliendo. 
 
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened”.  
 
 “The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that”.
 
En conclusión, existe una duda más que razonable cuando la ciencia "oficial" habla del cambio climático, porque existe la sospecha de que la ciencia "oficial" es parcial y además exagera. No se niega que las moléculas de CO2 absorban la radiación infrarroja y calienten la atmósfera. Lo que no se cree con los datos empíricos, es que el incremento del CO2 esté produciendo un calentamiento catastrófico. El pesimismo sobre la humanidad y sobre el clima se vende bien y la demonización del CO2, al que se trata falsamente de principal contaminante del aire, ha obtenido tanto éxito porque esta idea de la catástrofe climática ha ido acompañada de intereses económicos y políticas egoístas, que han manipulado y siguen manipulando la presentación al público de los datos.
 
Fuente: Antón Uriarte
 

miércoles, 16 de mayo de 2012

La Calidad lo es todo

La principal diferencia entre empresas que compiten reside en la calidad de sus productos. Por esta calidad somos capaces de pagar un precio adicional al de mercado. Esa calidad es la que diferencia el producto o servicio que se ofrece.

Debemos obsesionarnos por conseguir ese aumento de la calidad que nos va a proporcionar una ventaja competitiva a la que podemos sacar partido, ya que podrá redundar en mayores ventas y mayores beneficios, ademas de dejarnos la satisfacción del trabajo bien realizado.

Ya sé que hay empresas que se diferencian por los bajos precios que ofrecen, pero éstos van acompañados irremediablemente de una menor calidad. Acordémonos del dicho "nadie da duros a dos pesetas" (ahora con los euros no estoy seguro de cómo sería).

Por ello, debemos intentar conseguir esa calidad adicional en todos los trabajos que realicemos, desde dar una presentación interna en nuestra empresa, realizar un informe, escribir un email, gestionar una reunión, o cuantos trabajos, por pequeños que sean, que hacemos cotidianamente.

La calidad es contagiosa, por ello, involucrarla en todos los aspectos nos hará que, sin darnos cuenta, la tengamos en cuanta en los grandes proyectos, en aquellos que brillan más, en aquellos que la necesitan más. Sin embargo, si no estamos acostumbrados a ella, será muy difícil que consigamos esa calidad cuando un trabajo lo requiera, sólo porque no estamos acostumbrados a vivir con ella, a gestionarla.

Mañana, cuando comiences a realizar tu tarea, tú elegirás: hacer una tarea normal, que no brille, o incorporar la calidad a dicho trabajo. La recompensa no se verá de inmediato, pero poco a poco lo que realices brillará por si sólo sin darte cuenta.

La aventura merece la pena…. ¿te apuntas?

Fernando García